Moral Response to Mental Maneuver
A Boydian look at the Iranian robot operation of 13 April 2024
John R. Boyd frequently encouraged his listeners to sort the effects of warlike actions into three boxes. The first, full of the things that loom large in accounts and analyses of military operations, he called physical. The second, beloved of folks who think themselves clever, provided a home for mental maneuvers. The third, which contained measures aimed at weakening the ‘bonds that permit an organic whole to exist’, bore the label of moral.1
On 1 April 2024, the Israeli aircraft struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus, thereby creating a mental dilemma for the government of Iran. If it responded to this act, the war between Israel and Hamas would become part of a wider conflict, one that would reduce the political costs incurred by Israel as a result of its bombardment, and subsequent siege, of the Gaza Strip. If, however, the Iranian leadership failed to retaliate, it would lose the respect of many of its most important supporters, whether foreign or domestic.
On 13 April 2024, the Iranian government squared this particular circle by dispatching a swarm of flying robots in a way that minimized the likelihood of civilian casualties. In particular, it did two things. First, it aimed its missiles and drones at places other than civilian communities. Second, it used a variety of back-channels to provide those who defend Israeli territory from aerial attack with a good deal of warning of the impending storm, thereby increasing the possibility that most of the unmanned aircraft would be destroyed in the air.
Spokesmen for the Iranian government have claimed that its attack served the military purpose of striking the hangers that sheltered F-35 fighter jets. Whether or not any damage was done to these structures, however, played little, if any, role in the success or failure of the overall operation. After all, the number of people in the world who care about the well-being of innocents greatly exceeds the handful of hoplophiles concerned with the fate of a half-dozen over-priced, over-hyped, rarely-ready relics of a bygone era.2
In the realm of diplomacy, the moral victory won by the robot swarm allows Iran to retain the support of the enthusiasts in its camp without endangering the friendships it has made in the past few years, whether in its immediate neighborhood or the world at large. To be more precise, while both Houthis and the partisans of Hezbollah might have preferred an old-school rocket attack against a settlement, they cannot fault Iran for failing to retaliate. At the same time, the unmistakable restraint displayed in the details of the operation will reassure, among others, the eponymous owners of Saudi Arabia that the hijack happy, bomb-setting Islamic Republic of the last century has, indeed, gone the way of the cassette tape.
As successful as it was, the Iranian drone and missile operation has not resulted in a defeat for Israel. The absence of civilian casualties has derived the advocates of ethnic cleansing of the tu quoque images that they would love to be able to flaunt.3 At the same time, the mere fact of the robot swarm has caused the rulers of countries full of folks sympathetic to the suffering of the besieged and bombarded population of Gaza to replace muted criticism with declarations of ‘iron-clad’ support.
At the same time, the participation of many governments, from Amman to Washington, in the shooting down of Iranian drones and missiles, weakens the position of the Carthaginian party within Israel. Likewise, the many statements of support made in the hours that followed the attack, however perfunctory they may have been, strengthen the hand of those in the Israeli camp who prefer the ambiguities, frustrations, and contradictions of collective defense to the seemingly simple solution of driving Ishmael into the desert.
Herein lies the paradox. If one assumes, as I do, that treating Gaza like the Warsaw Ghetto will do great damage to the moral foundations of the Jewish State; if my characterization of the Iranian drone and missile attack is at all accurate; and if there is any truth in my belief in the beneficent influence of international support, then the folks who call the shots in Tehran have done a great favor to Israel, and, indeed, humanity as a whole. In the short term, the architects of this operation have made it easier for people around the world to distinguish between support for the security of Israel and acquiescence in ethnic cleansing. In the longer term, the admirable restraint shown by a regime once famous for its support of terrorism may, Deo volente, promote the practice of proportionality.
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John R. Boyd (Chet Richards and Chuck Spinney, editors) Patterns of Conflict (Defense and the National Interest, 2007), starting at slide 110.
Yes, Virginia, the F-35 is a lemon of gargantuan proportions. That, however, is a tale for another day.
In the language of argumentation, tu quoque (Latin for ‘so’s your old man’) describes a classic logical fallacy.