Aug 10·edited Aug 10Liked by Bruce Ivar Gudmundsson
I'm still waiting for the answer: who WILL make the drones?
This is one of those things I see in Hollywood all the time...the good ol' USofA always has more...more CH54s, more AC130s, more M1 tanks, you name it. Americans have become so disconnected from the effort, discipline, and expertise it takes to make those war materials and the mere possession of such machines, they have lost the connection. We no longer have much of the expertise and logistical capacity to produce our own war materials. Were we to devolve into Civil War, and I think this likely within two years, we will be reduced to hand-built AFVs and Toyota HiLux technicals in a year of fighting.
We need a new generation of ultra-cheap, ultra-light AFVs capable of being built with and sustained by extant logistical systems in the USofA. Suspension components from tractor-trailer rigs are common and usable for light tanks. 4140RHA plate steel can be found in 1" thickness in most state-level road maintenance depots, though in limited quantities. These will be the stuff of tanks of the near future...a return to M3 Stuart level AFVs.
Recoilless guns will be essential; no one has the heavy steel works for gun barrels and carriages. Mounted on technicals, these are proven weapons systems.
In Africa, I saw tractor-trailer low-boy rigs with light artillery pieces fastened to them. Mobile field gun with ammunition. The Africans drove them up to the fighting and used them in direct-fire roles.
RPG 2s with advanced sights can be easily made with light tooling. As can simple directional AP mines.
The war of the future will be a most curious mix of high tech gadgets and low tech brutality.
In the early days of Radio. The world government created the hobby of Amateur Radio to create more radio operators.
They have lost opportunity of future infrastructure by failing to create licensed hobbies. An Amateur Done service under Civil Air Patrol/FAA. An Amateur Alternative Energy Service under the Department of Energy. An Amateur Fabrication Service under Department of Defense to facilitate 3d Printing. Think how useful that would be right now in WW3-Drone Wars.
Just like Amateur Radio, no pecuniary interest, a mandate to experiment, tiered licensing for privileges, and protection or exemption from HOA/Zoning rules. Concealed Carry licensing almost does this now for the unorganized militia. FEMA has the Cajun Navy pop up almost out of nowhere after a hurricane. That could have been an Amateur Brown Water service a long time ago. With hundred of young men and women who know how to handle small craft on rivers an lakes. The difference with a national licensed system is we’re all on the same page. Interoperability with Amateur Radio is World wide.
Not long ago Tactical Notebook had a run of articles about WW1 French artillery blowing up. I followed the problems presented. As a metallic cartridge hand loader hobbyist I felt I hand a handle on the issue. Not as much if I was a trained Balistition. If we needed to produce small arms in distributed production because all the factories keep getting burn down by cheep drones. You will see much the same problems from distributed production, if not more. The current political environment will never allow this outside of independent hobbyist who will be semi outlaws. But it would take a national system for there to be in interoperability and volume needed in modern war.
Fascinating analogy! So you end up with effectively another wing of military reservists (although you don't call then that), with specific valuable skills that they've developed in their own time and at their own expense but under the aegis of the government who've provided encouragement, training materials and legal cover, which means they're already 'in the tent' should they ever need to operate alongside the actual military in a crisis?
This is an idea so good it's no wonder governments haven't got behind it.
Radio controlled model aircraft fort hobbyists are at least one of the major genetic contributors to the age of drones. PIRA tried to use them against British Army installations in Northern Ireland during The Troubles. The Iranians two decades ago and more were acquiring such hobby equipment.
I don’t think the British have used bronze for their naval cannon since about 1780.
Even 200 years earlier the cannon which armed Sir Francis Drake’s ships when they fought the Spanish Armada were made from wrought iron rather than bronze.
Thanks very much for your writings - always an interesting read.
i wonder how potential implications of 3D printing might influence manufacturing calculations?
I'm still waiting for the answer: who WILL make the drones?
This is one of those things I see in Hollywood all the time...the good ol' USofA always has more...more CH54s, more AC130s, more M1 tanks, you name it. Americans have become so disconnected from the effort, discipline, and expertise it takes to make those war materials and the mere possession of such machines, they have lost the connection. We no longer have much of the expertise and logistical capacity to produce our own war materials. Were we to devolve into Civil War, and I think this likely within two years, we will be reduced to hand-built AFVs and Toyota HiLux technicals in a year of fighting.
We need a new generation of ultra-cheap, ultra-light AFVs capable of being built with and sustained by extant logistical systems in the USofA. Suspension components from tractor-trailer rigs are common and usable for light tanks. 4140RHA plate steel can be found in 1" thickness in most state-level road maintenance depots, though in limited quantities. These will be the stuff of tanks of the near future...a return to M3 Stuart level AFVs.
Recoilless guns will be essential; no one has the heavy steel works for gun barrels and carriages. Mounted on technicals, these are proven weapons systems.
In Africa, I saw tractor-trailer low-boy rigs with light artillery pieces fastened to them. Mobile field gun with ammunition. The Africans drove them up to the fighting and used them in direct-fire roles.
RPG 2s with advanced sights can be easily made with light tooling. As can simple directional AP mines.
The war of the future will be a most curious mix of high tech gadgets and low tech brutality.
In the early days of Radio. The world government created the hobby of Amateur Radio to create more radio operators.
They have lost opportunity of future infrastructure by failing to create licensed hobbies. An Amateur Done service under Civil Air Patrol/FAA. An Amateur Alternative Energy Service under the Department of Energy. An Amateur Fabrication Service under Department of Defense to facilitate 3d Printing. Think how useful that would be right now in WW3-Drone Wars.
Just like Amateur Radio, no pecuniary interest, a mandate to experiment, tiered licensing for privileges, and protection or exemption from HOA/Zoning rules. Concealed Carry licensing almost does this now for the unorganized militia. FEMA has the Cajun Navy pop up almost out of nowhere after a hurricane. That could have been an Amateur Brown Water service a long time ago. With hundred of young men and women who know how to handle small craft on rivers an lakes. The difference with a national licensed system is we’re all on the same page. Interoperability with Amateur Radio is World wide.
Not long ago Tactical Notebook had a run of articles about WW1 French artillery blowing up. I followed the problems presented. As a metallic cartridge hand loader hobbyist I felt I hand a handle on the issue. Not as much if I was a trained Balistition. If we needed to produce small arms in distributed production because all the factories keep getting burn down by cheep drones. You will see much the same problems from distributed production, if not more. The current political environment will never allow this outside of independent hobbyist who will be semi outlaws. But it would take a national system for there to be in interoperability and volume needed in modern war.
Fascinating analogy! So you end up with effectively another wing of military reservists (although you don't call then that), with specific valuable skills that they've developed in their own time and at their own expense but under the aegis of the government who've provided encouragement, training materials and legal cover, which means they're already 'in the tent' should they ever need to operate alongside the actual military in a crisis?
This is an idea so good it's no wonder governments haven't got behind it.
MARS. Military Auxiliary Radio System.
Yes I meant wrt the other examples you gave. Drone operation, fabrication, electronic tinkering etc.
This single question strikes as so important today. Stuff like this https://enews.wvu.edu/articles/2024/06/28/upcoming-ban-planned-on-use-of-certain-foreign-made-drones-for-federally-funded-research#:~:text=Under%20the%20American%20Security%20Drone,notably%20China%2C%20will%20be%20prohibited makes it look like someone is trying to make this into a protected industry, which may be the right thing to do. I remember reading somewhere that mini drone factories were being stood up in Ukraine to reduce logistics timelines and protect otherwise vulnerable international LOCs. I guess my observation is, unlike artillery, when autonomous drones become effective and the weapons fight themselves, like this thing https://shield.ai/v-bat/ , the "meaningful" war part may focus more on logistics than ever in history. And logistics is already one of the most important areas of focus right now.
Not substack…
Retool, insource manufacturing, lather, rinse, repeat.
I’m busy can’t learn to make consumer electronics.
Perhaps someone else can get this one?
Then learn to make em.
An elephant in the room question from the start of the de-industrialization of the West.
Radio controlled model aircraft fort hobbyists are at least one of the major genetic contributors to the age of drones. PIRA tried to use them against British Army installations in Northern Ireland during The Troubles. The Iranians two decades ago and more were acquiring such hobby equipment.
I don’t think the British have used bronze for their naval cannon since about 1780.
Even 200 years earlier the cannon which armed Sir Francis Drake’s ships when they fought the Spanish Armada were made from wrought iron rather than bronze.
Thanks very much for your writings - always an interesting read.