I admit that I thought the Ruski's we're trying to take Kiev and deliver a knockout punch. But in the end they did get what they wanted, didn't they? A land bridge to Crimea.
When thinking of leading from the front, one image that is conjured up fast is the US Marine Corps, William Leftwich, Jr. Trophy awarded each year since 1979 to a captain that meets the leadership characteristics exemplified by Lt. Colonel Leftwich who was killed in action in the Republic of South Viet Nam in 1970. It was a big deal when the first recipient Captain Clyde “Sam” Brinkley was awarded the trophy, those of us young infantry officers in 2nd Marines at that time, had yet another example to look up to, though there was no shortage of great leadership in the regiment. Lt. Colonel John “Dong Ha bridge” Ripley was CO of 1/2 and Captain Jim Conway CO of Kilo 3/2, to name a few. Fast forward to todays flag officers, they wouldn’t be caught dead leading from the front. Perhaps one of the best examples of today’s technocrat politically correct generals is Kenneth McKenzie, General, USMC (ret) knowing full well and it’s been soundly documented that he knew and advised the Biden Administration that their plans or lack thereof would be disastrous, just blithely went along to get along with his “foot on the gas” to “retrograde” out of Afghanistan. Leading from the front he would have resigned as CentCom CG, whether he chose to become more outspoken after resigning and retiring would be up to him, but the statement regarding the exit plans would have been unambiguous. The Russian military may well be an undisciplined mess, and their flag officers qualified or not at least appear to give enough of a damn to lead from the front. It might be better to remind that troop leaders need to place themselves in the best possible position to direct the attack or defense, which isn’t necessarily in front. But General O.P Smith’s leadership of the attack in another direction by the First Marine Division in November and December of 1950, seems a great example to study and replicate. Agreed the fat lady has yet to sing, hope her voice can hold up, as there are a lot of operas that need a finale.
Re the looting, my primary thought at the time, reading the reaction of people who were apparently shocked, was that they clearly hadn’t read the memoirs of the late Sir Harry Flashman, or else hadn’t taken them as seriously as they deserved. I doubt there has ever been an army that didn’t loot at least a *little*.
To be fair, explaining the truth of the Ukraine war is not really what the media gets paid to do. They are propagandists for oligarchs and deep state. In a related way I found Viveks interview with Tucker quite fascinating.
I’m in no position to comment on the substance of this analysis, but I heartily agree with your “procedural” critique. We need analysts to offer a clear sense of the the sources they’re using. I know journalists can’t be expected to provide detailed footnotes, but they could provide some indication of whether they’re using foreign language sources, non-US intelligence officers and so on.
The Russian army remains a complete train wreck. Indeed, Russia has lost every war but one in the last 150 years (two, if you count the 2nd Chechen War). Two of those defeats ended in revolution. The one victory was a demographic catastrophe from which the country never recovered. Russia spent ten years preparing for that war, including a crash industrialization program. Contrast that with 20 years of de-industrialization under Putin.
Without the iron fist of the Soviet security services, the Russian army has reverted to the mean: apathy, alcoholism, and abuse (except for a few specialist units). Corruption (always a problem) is now at unimaginable levels. Indeed, to keep the loyalty of his officer corps Putin legalized theft in "unfriendly countries." Corruption is the very lifeblood of Putin's kleptocracy.
Yes, railroads move a lot of freight. Railheads, however, are immobile and easy targets. Russian railroads are also electric, and transformer stations are fixed targets, as well. Ukrainian drones and missiles have forced the Russians to use railheads much farther away than they ever planned. They have neither to trucks nor forklifts to make up the difference. And, it's hard to make more trucks and forklifts when you're dependent on Western machine tool technology.
Russian Telegram accounts make the shortage of food evident. I'm guessing that those bodegas are cleaned out by now.
I *love* your work, but the Fat Lady has yet to sing. Maybe it's a bit premature to start casting stones.
There’s nothing to stop diesel electrics from running on those tracks. It goes on in the northeast corridor of the US all the time.
I’d say Russia has all the machine tools they need to build trucks and forklifts. Should they not, China will be happy to supply them.
Corruption is endemic on both sides of the current war. Indeed, I’d say it’s endemic in the US as well.
Vast fortunes are being made on the bones of young Ukrainian and Russian men. Well, not the young Ukrainian men living a life of ease in Ireland while their brothers fight, they seem to be fine. They are much like the young Kuwaiti men who thronged the nightclubs of Abu Dhabi while coalition forces expelled the Iraqis from their homeland.
Alas, that's not how industrial infrastructure works. Russia makes only low-end machine tools. China makes mid-grade machine tools. Neither can manufacture the high-end tools necessary for modern weaponry. The vast majority of high-end machine tools are made in Germany, Japan, and the US. This fact is evident in continual degradation of Russian equipment. Nothing new comes out, only their grandfathers' tanks
Russia is also now restricting civilian access to fuel supplies. The Russian oil industry is dependent on Western oil services firms. Without them, critical maintenance doesn't get done. Not only has drilling output declined, but so has refining capacity.
So, Russia can't build the vehicles you suggest that the use on the tracks. Nor can theyproduce the fuel to run them. Per your suggestion, they have purchased Chinese trucks, but not only are they garbage, they cannot function in Russian winters. Same with Chinese tires.
Corruption is the very lifeblood of Putin's regime (if you have not, please read Karen Dawishs's superb study, "Putin's Kleptocracy"). Transparency International ranked Ukraine 104th (lower the better) in the world, but improving. Russia ranked 141st, and is rapidly deteriorating. The US ranked 34th.
Perhaps the 1M+ highly educated Russians who have fled since 2022 can party with the oligarchs children in London, while impoverished minorities are butchered on behalf of that most mighty of midgets, Tsar Vlad the Last.
The War for Eurasia began ten years ago, but we're just noticing. Vlad is now effectively China's vassal, as only China can help prop up the Potemkin empire. What we leave for Vlad now, we give to Xi to use against us later.
My comment was to the effect that no high tech machine tools are required to produce trucks and forklifts. I also stated that diesel-electric locomotives are well able to operate on electrified tracks. Both those things are true.
I made no mention of Russia buying trucks from China, but machine tools. As to the subject of Chinese trucks and tires being junk, I’ll leave to the better-informed.
No high tech machine tools are required to make artillery shells or gun barrels.
Russia is the sole remaining repository of European culture. Paris is no longer French. London is no longer English. And Berlin is no longer German.
The West has lost its heritage. You are doomed by your arrogance and incompetence. Your sole remaining skill is in the media manipulation of your populations. But people are belatedly waking up.
Retreat from Moscow in 1812 was along “old Smolensk” road - nowhere close to Ukraine. Army of admiral Chichagoff was coming from the south after being formed in Malorossia and was late to complete the trap at Berezina river.
Western Pundits don't study history. Therefore, they know nothing about Russia or the soldier's soul.
I admit that I thought the Ruski's we're trying to take Kiev and deliver a knockout punch. But in the end they did get what they wanted, didn't they? A land bridge to Crimea.
When thinking of leading from the front, one image that is conjured up fast is the US Marine Corps, William Leftwich, Jr. Trophy awarded each year since 1979 to a captain that meets the leadership characteristics exemplified by Lt. Colonel Leftwich who was killed in action in the Republic of South Viet Nam in 1970. It was a big deal when the first recipient Captain Clyde “Sam” Brinkley was awarded the trophy, those of us young infantry officers in 2nd Marines at that time, had yet another example to look up to, though there was no shortage of great leadership in the regiment. Lt. Colonel John “Dong Ha bridge” Ripley was CO of 1/2 and Captain Jim Conway CO of Kilo 3/2, to name a few. Fast forward to todays flag officers, they wouldn’t be caught dead leading from the front. Perhaps one of the best examples of today’s technocrat politically correct generals is Kenneth McKenzie, General, USMC (ret) knowing full well and it’s been soundly documented that he knew and advised the Biden Administration that their plans or lack thereof would be disastrous, just blithely went along to get along with his “foot on the gas” to “retrograde” out of Afghanistan. Leading from the front he would have resigned as CentCom CG, whether he chose to become more outspoken after resigning and retiring would be up to him, but the statement regarding the exit plans would have been unambiguous. The Russian military may well be an undisciplined mess, and their flag officers qualified or not at least appear to give enough of a damn to lead from the front. It might be better to remind that troop leaders need to place themselves in the best possible position to direct the attack or defense, which isn’t necessarily in front. But General O.P Smith’s leadership of the attack in another direction by the First Marine Division in November and December of 1950, seems a great example to study and replicate. Agreed the fat lady has yet to sing, hope her voice can hold up, as there are a lot of operas that need a finale.
Re the looting, my primary thought at the time, reading the reaction of people who were apparently shocked, was that they clearly hadn’t read the memoirs of the late Sir Harry Flashman, or else hadn’t taken them as seriously as they deserved. I doubt there has ever been an army that didn’t loot at least a *little*.
To be fair, explaining the truth of the Ukraine war is not really what the media gets paid to do. They are propagandists for oligarchs and deep state. In a related way I found Viveks interview with Tucker quite fascinating.
I’m in no position to comment on the substance of this analysis, but I heartily agree with your “procedural” critique. We need analysts to offer a clear sense of the the sources they’re using. I know journalists can’t be expected to provide detailed footnotes, but they could provide some indication of whether they’re using foreign language sources, non-US intelligence officers and so on.
Also I want to add that I intend to steal two of the phrases you use here: “painfully narrow lens” and “poverty of paradigms!”
The Russian army remains a complete train wreck. Indeed, Russia has lost every war but one in the last 150 years (two, if you count the 2nd Chechen War). Two of those defeats ended in revolution. The one victory was a demographic catastrophe from which the country never recovered. Russia spent ten years preparing for that war, including a crash industrialization program. Contrast that with 20 years of de-industrialization under Putin.
Without the iron fist of the Soviet security services, the Russian army has reverted to the mean: apathy, alcoholism, and abuse (except for a few specialist units). Corruption (always a problem) is now at unimaginable levels. Indeed, to keep the loyalty of his officer corps Putin legalized theft in "unfriendly countries." Corruption is the very lifeblood of Putin's kleptocracy.
Yes, railroads move a lot of freight. Railheads, however, are immobile and easy targets. Russian railroads are also electric, and transformer stations are fixed targets, as well. Ukrainian drones and missiles have forced the Russians to use railheads much farther away than they ever planned. They have neither to trucks nor forklifts to make up the difference. And, it's hard to make more trucks and forklifts when you're dependent on Western machine tool technology.
Russian Telegram accounts make the shortage of food evident. I'm guessing that those bodegas are cleaned out by now.
I *love* your work, but the Fat Lady has yet to sing. Maybe it's a bit premature to start casting stones.
There’s nothing to stop diesel electrics from running on those tracks. It goes on in the northeast corridor of the US all the time.
I’d say Russia has all the machine tools they need to build trucks and forklifts. Should they not, China will be happy to supply them.
Corruption is endemic on both sides of the current war. Indeed, I’d say it’s endemic in the US as well.
Vast fortunes are being made on the bones of young Ukrainian and Russian men. Well, not the young Ukrainian men living a life of ease in Ireland while their brothers fight, they seem to be fine. They are much like the young Kuwaiti men who thronged the nightclubs of Abu Dhabi while coalition forces expelled the Iraqis from their homeland.
Alas, that's not how industrial infrastructure works. Russia makes only low-end machine tools. China makes mid-grade machine tools. Neither can manufacture the high-end tools necessary for modern weaponry. The vast majority of high-end machine tools are made in Germany, Japan, and the US. This fact is evident in continual degradation of Russian equipment. Nothing new comes out, only their grandfathers' tanks
Russia is also now restricting civilian access to fuel supplies. The Russian oil industry is dependent on Western oil services firms. Without them, critical maintenance doesn't get done. Not only has drilling output declined, but so has refining capacity.
So, Russia can't build the vehicles you suggest that the use on the tracks. Nor can theyproduce the fuel to run them. Per your suggestion, they have purchased Chinese trucks, but not only are they garbage, they cannot function in Russian winters. Same with Chinese tires.
Corruption is the very lifeblood of Putin's regime (if you have not, please read Karen Dawishs's superb study, "Putin's Kleptocracy"). Transparency International ranked Ukraine 104th (lower the better) in the world, but improving. Russia ranked 141st, and is rapidly deteriorating. The US ranked 34th.
Perhaps the 1M+ highly educated Russians who have fled since 2022 can party with the oligarchs children in London, while impoverished minorities are butchered on behalf of that most mighty of midgets, Tsar Vlad the Last.
The War for Eurasia began ten years ago, but we're just noticing. Vlad is now effectively China's vassal, as only China can help prop up the Potemkin empire. What we leave for Vlad now, we give to Xi to use against us later.
My comment was to the effect that no high tech machine tools are required to produce trucks and forklifts. I also stated that diesel-electric locomotives are well able to operate on electrified tracks. Both those things are true.
I made no mention of Russia buying trucks from China, but machine tools. As to the subject of Chinese trucks and tires being junk, I’ll leave to the better-informed.
No high tech machine tools are required to make artillery shells or gun barrels.
Russia is just two weeks away from taking Kiev! Western analysts and Russian Strelkovites just don't understand this, sadly.
We have that many Flag Officers along too ! One per Battalion?
In Bosnia it was one per rifle company.
They just never seem to get hurt, unless it’s that rare suicide bomber at the meeting.
At a meeting.
Not meeting engagement, no.
The Command HQ can be dangerous, mind you, with more Flag Officers than PFCs.
The USN has more admirals than ships.
Speak for yourself.
Russia is the sole remaining repository of European culture. Paris is no longer French. London is no longer English. And Berlin is no longer German.
The West has lost its heritage. You are doomed by your arrogance and incompetence. Your sole remaining skill is in the media manipulation of your populations. But people are belatedly waking up.
Retreat from Moscow in 1812 was along “old Smolensk” road - nowhere close to Ukraine. Army of admiral Chichagoff was coming from the south after being formed in Malorossia and was late to complete the trap at Berezina river.