On small HQs. I was chief human factors geek on a bunch of UK studies into command systems ISR etc in the 2000s. Every time we found the benefit of the new gadget was far outweighed by trimming the staff. In general a 40% reduction cut information processing times and errors by about a third. But there was no department of common sense or making good use of evidence, just lots of departments of buy more stuff. Gave up after 10yrs of MOD apathy.
I disagree with your thumbnail summary of Goya’s interesting article. His view on your second issue is that Israel has created a strategic dilemma for Hezbollah, giving them three choices: partial compliance with UNSC 1701, albeit 18 years late, by withdrawing north of the Litani River, going to a hot war or just taking it with perhaps some desultory retaliation that Israel can ignore.
Goya rules out the first as too humiliating - without commenting that this reinforces the utter uselessness of the U.N. that resolution was the basis for ending the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The second is ruled out as suicidal which leaves the third.
I think what is going on is the proverbial “escalate to deescalate” scenario. Israel can no longer tolerate Hezbollah quite literally across the border and seeks its withdrawal north of the Litani. Of course, Iran will not permit its proxy’s disarmament, the second prong of res. 1701, that will be for others to accomplish.
Israel is signaling that Hezbollah will be paying an increasing price for having begun an unprovoked war against Israel on October 8. Their realistic choices are (1) the U.S. and maybe France (which maintains its 19th century pretense of being Lebanon’s security guarantor) convince Hezbollah to withdraw thereby avoiding war or (2) face a catastrophic defeat at the hands of the IDF that will destroy the country they pretend to protect.
Nasrallah cannot know if (2) is a bluff. While he’s sorting all this out from his bunker, Israel is systematically picking off his top echelon and targeting missile launchers, presumably on the theory that without adequate launchers, Hezbollah’s vaunted missile inventory is worthless.
Missing from Goya’s analysis on wars of attrition is a grappling with the anomalous situation that since its reestablishment of Jewish sovereignty, Israel has never been allowed to fight to the type of victory the Allies had in WWII. Only such an obviously comprehensive victory can discredit genocidal ideologies. Instead, Israel’s adversaries know that the “world community” will save them from such a fate so they can fight again. From all indications, that was a fundamental premise of Hamas’ October 7 massacre.
It seems to be the case that October 7 has changed Israeli calculations of what it can tolerate and has determined that the status quo ante is gone never to return. Destroying Hamas and Hezbollah’s grip on those they rule with an iron fist would be a godsend to the people of both Gaza and Lebanon. No one in the West seems to have the moral clarity or perhaps interest even to begin to make the case.
Finally, it would have been refreshing to read any analysis of a hypothetical French response to a continuous missile and rocket bombardement from Belgium (supported by Germany or Russia - to find an Iranian analogue) that was commenced in solidarity with a nationalist uprising in Corsica and made France evacuate the residents of its northern departments.
“says that Western armies ought to replace large staffs full of functionaries with small groups of adaptable, articulate, well-practiced virtuosi.” Oui.
Sure. Oui. Que encule original
je se lans de fleur how do you say deja vu…
The Ukrainian staffs are small in the sense of Paris June 1940 or more appropriately perhaps Warsaw late 1939 in The Only War Ever ™️ had shrinking staffs… and Petain 1940 comes into focus. Poor man.
I suspect we already have shrinking staffing, never fear.
fear comes later, although probably sooner.
Yes it’s a good point that our staffs are too large. Why I’ve been hearing it for years, in fact decades. It’s also past flogging a dead horse and past equine forensics into archeology … moving into the mists of time from which we await the first stirrings of Cronus and time itself. But yes our staffs are too large, because it’s a retention program, not a staff.
Without large staffs we’d lose most of our qualified and experienced people.
So staffs are retention.
Truly immortality is within our grasp, efficiency out of reach.
This will remain the case until we stop nodding yessir. Ma’am.
On small HQs. I was chief human factors geek on a bunch of UK studies into command systems ISR etc in the 2000s. Every time we found the benefit of the new gadget was far outweighed by trimming the staff. In general a 40% reduction cut information processing times and errors by about a third. But there was no department of common sense or making good use of evidence, just lots of departments of buy more stuff. Gave up after 10yrs of MOD apathy.
It’s personnel retention.
I disagree with your thumbnail summary of Goya’s interesting article. His view on your second issue is that Israel has created a strategic dilemma for Hezbollah, giving them three choices: partial compliance with UNSC 1701, albeit 18 years late, by withdrawing north of the Litani River, going to a hot war or just taking it with perhaps some desultory retaliation that Israel can ignore.
Goya rules out the first as too humiliating - without commenting that this reinforces the utter uselessness of the U.N. that resolution was the basis for ending the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The second is ruled out as suicidal which leaves the third.
I think what is going on is the proverbial “escalate to deescalate” scenario. Israel can no longer tolerate Hezbollah quite literally across the border and seeks its withdrawal north of the Litani. Of course, Iran will not permit its proxy’s disarmament, the second prong of res. 1701, that will be for others to accomplish.
Israel is signaling that Hezbollah will be paying an increasing price for having begun an unprovoked war against Israel on October 8. Their realistic choices are (1) the U.S. and maybe France (which maintains its 19th century pretense of being Lebanon’s security guarantor) convince Hezbollah to withdraw thereby avoiding war or (2) face a catastrophic defeat at the hands of the IDF that will destroy the country they pretend to protect.
Nasrallah cannot know if (2) is a bluff. While he’s sorting all this out from his bunker, Israel is systematically picking off his top echelon and targeting missile launchers, presumably on the theory that without adequate launchers, Hezbollah’s vaunted missile inventory is worthless.
Missing from Goya’s analysis on wars of attrition is a grappling with the anomalous situation that since its reestablishment of Jewish sovereignty, Israel has never been allowed to fight to the type of victory the Allies had in WWII. Only such an obviously comprehensive victory can discredit genocidal ideologies. Instead, Israel’s adversaries know that the “world community” will save them from such a fate so they can fight again. From all indications, that was a fundamental premise of Hamas’ October 7 massacre.
It seems to be the case that October 7 has changed Israeli calculations of what it can tolerate and has determined that the status quo ante is gone never to return. Destroying Hamas and Hezbollah’s grip on those they rule with an iron fist would be a godsend to the people of both Gaza and Lebanon. No one in the West seems to have the moral clarity or perhaps interest even to begin to make the case.
Finally, it would have been refreshing to read any analysis of a hypothetical French response to a continuous missile and rocket bombardement from Belgium (supported by Germany or Russia - to find an Iranian analogue) that was commenced in solidarity with a nationalist uprising in Corsica and made France evacuate the residents of its northern departments.
Exactly.
“says that Western armies ought to replace large staffs full of functionaries with small groups of adaptable, articulate, well-practiced virtuosi.” Oui.
Sure. Oui. Que encule original
je se lans de fleur how do you say deja vu…
The Ukrainian staffs are small in the sense of Paris June 1940 or more appropriately perhaps Warsaw late 1939 in The Only War Ever ™️ had shrinking staffs… and Petain 1940 comes into focus. Poor man.
I suspect we already have shrinking staffing, never fear.
fear comes later, although probably sooner.
Yes it’s a good point that our staffs are too large. Why I’ve been hearing it for years, in fact decades. It’s also past flogging a dead horse and past equine forensics into archeology … moving into the mists of time from which we await the first stirrings of Cronus and time itself. But yes our staffs are too large, because it’s a retention program, not a staff.
Without large staffs we’d lose most of our qualified and experienced people.
So staffs are retention.
Truly immortality is within our grasp, efficiency out of reach.
This will remain the case until we stop nodding yessir. Ma’am.
It. Thing. Xhe.
Amen 🦄🌈⛈️
Cheers!
My recently republished article on the opening phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War:
https://unwokeindianaag.substack.com/p/tannenberg-revisited-670