The immediate priority is not being outside after dark in the jungle - never mind ambush, the attrition on our supplies would be catastrophic. So there are 3 options:
1. Route A to Darali
2. Route B to Darali
3. Retreat to Yali
Options 1 and 2 both carry an unknown risk of ambush, as we don't know either road as well as the enemy is likely to and we also have no way of knowing what if anything awaits us at Darali. Conversely, option 3 means extended delay in getting the supplies to Condega, whether we stay in Yali and attempt to get all the way in one day's march once recovered, or attempt to go the long way around via Esteli.
Decision: unless I knew when we set off that Condega were in imminent danger of abandoning their position due to lack of supplies I retreat, so as not to risk my tired force and valuable supplies over unknown territory in dwindling light. Once back I send out the message (either by runner or the same way we received the message telling us to hurry on after our arrival, I assume involving carrier pigeons or possibly radio?) that we were unable to proceed and Condega will require either a few days' wait or another convoy putting together from Esteli. If I know we may lose Condega for want of the convoy, we have no option but to push on - at least it doesn't sound like the pressure on Condega is a siege we're expected to fight our way into. Given the time of day and assuming the map in the problem is accurate, we're getting to Darali after dark if at all. Given the condition of the men, route A will be too hard going and is just as susceptible to ambush. I pick route B - at least it's easier going so we'll be in a fitter state to fight if it comes to it. Plus, if the enemy knows we know Condega is under threat, they may naturally assume we're making all possible haste and focus any efforts to stop us on the mountain path.
This is certainly a "damned if you do / damned if you don't" situation.
In short, I would make the hard push up and over the mountain and set in at the ranch as soon as possible.
At length: first I will calculate a hasty time-distance analysis. Using my rule of thumb for dismounts traversing mountain terrain /without/ roads, I'd expect about a half-mile's progress (800m) for every hour taking the mountain route. With a road, this time should be cut down significantly, but I'd expect a steep grade and lots of mud. The distance looks to be about five miles, so, I'll assume somewhere between five and eight hours to get across the mountain to the ranch. Regardless, it will be well and dark by the time of our arrival.
The likelihood of enemy contact is hard to discern, so I will deploy my lead team just barely within visual contact of my main body in a travelling overwatch. Where possible, I will instruct them to fan out and break brush along the sides of the road some distance, rather than walk directly on the road. I will have them strip down to just their combat equipment, and leave all sustainment and any extra weight with the pack animals. At the front of the main body I will have the remaining team from my lead squad, followed by an additional squad, equipped similarly. The two BARs will be in front of and behind this second squad. Third squad will be responsible for rear and flank security, and the pack animals.
Should the lead team take contact, I will be able to maneuver my Bravo team from first squad, as well as my second squad in its entirety. Should it be necessary, one of my sergeants will be able to establish a support by fire using the two BARs on the flank of any of my elements. The other sergeant will stay with the rest of the main body.
Maneuver will be very difficult in this terrain and fighting is likely to be very close up; all the more reason for the lead team to fan out wide. The other three teams will likely end up filing out perpendicular to the trail in one direction or another to support the lead team, and will be limited in their ability to flank at all. Fact is, there's no good way to fight up a steep slope, you just have to commit to it with violence and speed.
There's no chance in hell that I'd take that defile. We would be observed the entire way, even with the thick brush, and vulnerable the entire way. At least by taking the mountain road (which almost certainly follows the spine of the hill) after the peak we will command the hill. And, while on our way up, we will command the slopes to our flanks. It's generally better to just "get high and stay high." You aren't going to be able to hide with that kind of convoy anyways, best to just own the hill.
1a. The men and animals are in the terms of real-world military deployments still very fresh after only a day and a half of hard marching.
1b. The animals are not carrying quite as much as on the first march to Yali.
2. The men have not yet been under fire.
3. Over the mountain is a direct route although harder.
4. The opfor are mostly bandit/criminal types.
I would take the road over the mountain. The men are new in theater and are, therefore, likely to be in as good of shape as they ever will be (active deployments in third-world conditions tend to rapidly degrade troops) and the animals are carrying less weight after having delivered some supplies to Yali. Going over the mountain, while probably generating some complaints, is not going to be too terrible of a task for relatively fresh men and animals. If it is still 17 to Condega and the ranch is "nearby" our current location I would assume the ranch is somewhat less than halfway between i.e. 8 miles. We should be able to get to the ranch in fairly good time with some hard marching. From 1330 until sunset 1800 (sunset in Nicaragua this time of year) 4.5 hours. 2mph is not an unreasonable pace to ask.
However, the men are not yet blooded so I would rather not have too terrible of a tactical situation thrust upon them should we be ambushed; therefore I will not take the ravine route. Over the mountain will likely put my men in a more favourable tactical position should we be ambushed. While the opfor is going to be undisciplined bandits with little actual combat power, I want my men to be able to prevail with the least likelihood of casualties.
Given that the opfor is mostly bandits, the rancher is likely going to be pretty happy to see my unit. In a brush war this is a very good opportunity to win some hearts and minds. Also it is very likely we can get some fresh beef and raise the morale of the unit. Also, likely a good opportunity to get some local intel on the whereabout of the opfor.
The immediate priority is not being outside after dark in the jungle - never mind ambush, the attrition on our supplies would be catastrophic. So there are 3 options:
1. Route A to Darali
2. Route B to Darali
3. Retreat to Yali
Options 1 and 2 both carry an unknown risk of ambush, as we don't know either road as well as the enemy is likely to and we also have no way of knowing what if anything awaits us at Darali. Conversely, option 3 means extended delay in getting the supplies to Condega, whether we stay in Yali and attempt to get all the way in one day's march once recovered, or attempt to go the long way around via Esteli.
Decision: unless I knew when we set off that Condega were in imminent danger of abandoning their position due to lack of supplies I retreat, so as not to risk my tired force and valuable supplies over unknown territory in dwindling light. Once back I send out the message (either by runner or the same way we received the message telling us to hurry on after our arrival, I assume involving carrier pigeons or possibly radio?) that we were unable to proceed and Condega will require either a few days' wait or another convoy putting together from Esteli. If I know we may lose Condega for want of the convoy, we have no option but to push on - at least it doesn't sound like the pressure on Condega is a siege we're expected to fight our way into. Given the time of day and assuming the map in the problem is accurate, we're getting to Darali after dark if at all. Given the condition of the men, route A will be too hard going and is just as susceptible to ambush. I pick route B - at least it's easier going so we'll be in a fitter state to fight if it comes to it. Plus, if the enemy knows we know Condega is under threat, they may naturally assume we're making all possible haste and focus any efforts to stop us on the mountain path.
This is certainly a "damned if you do / damned if you don't" situation.
In short, I would make the hard push up and over the mountain and set in at the ranch as soon as possible.
At length: first I will calculate a hasty time-distance analysis. Using my rule of thumb for dismounts traversing mountain terrain /without/ roads, I'd expect about a half-mile's progress (800m) for every hour taking the mountain route. With a road, this time should be cut down significantly, but I'd expect a steep grade and lots of mud. The distance looks to be about five miles, so, I'll assume somewhere between five and eight hours to get across the mountain to the ranch. Regardless, it will be well and dark by the time of our arrival.
The likelihood of enemy contact is hard to discern, so I will deploy my lead team just barely within visual contact of my main body in a travelling overwatch. Where possible, I will instruct them to fan out and break brush along the sides of the road some distance, rather than walk directly on the road. I will have them strip down to just their combat equipment, and leave all sustainment and any extra weight with the pack animals. At the front of the main body I will have the remaining team from my lead squad, followed by an additional squad, equipped similarly. The two BARs will be in front of and behind this second squad. Third squad will be responsible for rear and flank security, and the pack animals.
Should the lead team take contact, I will be able to maneuver my Bravo team from first squad, as well as my second squad in its entirety. Should it be necessary, one of my sergeants will be able to establish a support by fire using the two BARs on the flank of any of my elements. The other sergeant will stay with the rest of the main body.
Maneuver will be very difficult in this terrain and fighting is likely to be very close up; all the more reason for the lead team to fan out wide. The other three teams will likely end up filing out perpendicular to the trail in one direction or another to support the lead team, and will be limited in their ability to flank at all. Fact is, there's no good way to fight up a steep slope, you just have to commit to it with violence and speed.
There's no chance in hell that I'd take that defile. We would be observed the entire way, even with the thick brush, and vulnerable the entire way. At least by taking the mountain road (which almost certainly follows the spine of the hill) after the peak we will command the hill. And, while on our way up, we will command the slopes to our flanks. It's generally better to just "get high and stay high." You aren't going to be able to hide with that kind of convoy anyways, best to just own the hill.
My considerations:
1a. The men and animals are in the terms of real-world military deployments still very fresh after only a day and a half of hard marching.
1b. The animals are not carrying quite as much as on the first march to Yali.
2. The men have not yet been under fire.
3. Over the mountain is a direct route although harder.
4. The opfor are mostly bandit/criminal types.
I would take the road over the mountain. The men are new in theater and are, therefore, likely to be in as good of shape as they ever will be (active deployments in third-world conditions tend to rapidly degrade troops) and the animals are carrying less weight after having delivered some supplies to Yali. Going over the mountain, while probably generating some complaints, is not going to be too terrible of a task for relatively fresh men and animals. If it is still 17 to Condega and the ranch is "nearby" our current location I would assume the ranch is somewhat less than halfway between i.e. 8 miles. We should be able to get to the ranch in fairly good time with some hard marching. From 1330 until sunset 1800 (sunset in Nicaragua this time of year) 4.5 hours. 2mph is not an unreasonable pace to ask.
However, the men are not yet blooded so I would rather not have too terrible of a tactical situation thrust upon them should we be ambushed; therefore I will not take the ravine route. Over the mountain will likely put my men in a more favourable tactical position should we be ambushed. While the opfor is going to be undisciplined bandits with little actual combat power, I want my men to be able to prevail with the least likelihood of casualties.
Given that the opfor is mostly bandits, the rancher is likely going to be pretty happy to see my unit. In a brush war this is a very good opportunity to win some hearts and minds. Also it is very likely we can get some fresh beef and raise the morale of the unit. Also, likely a good opportunity to get some local intel on the whereabout of the opfor.
I apologize for the “blast from the past” restack, which I did as an experiment in the appearance of graphics.