And the winner is ...

The War in Ukraine (2022)

… Türkiye

Years ago, when George Friedman argued that Turkey (as it was then known) would become a major player on the world stage, I filed his prediction in the same three-ring binder where I kept the prophecies of Nostradamus. Today, I find myself obliged to admit that he was right and that I was wrong.

For me, the first indication of the rise of Türkiye was the victory won by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. (To described Azerbaijan as an ally of Türkiye is a massive understatement. Rather, if the relationship between the two countries was a movie, it would star Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughan.)

My study of that conflict (the fruits of which will soon appear in the pages of this blog) led me to ponder the growing cultural influence of Türkiye. In particular, it seems to me that Türkiye benefits greatly from the embrace of the Latin alphabet by the four Central Asian republics in which the definitive population speaks a Turkic language. (These are Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.)

On a practical level, the use of a common alphabet makes it easier for people in Türkiye forge business and cultural connections with their Central Asian cousins. On the level of symbolism, this practice cements the position of Türkiye, which has used the Latin alphabet for nearly a hundred years, as the “paradigmatic paragon” of the Turkic-speaking world. That is, it reminds all concerned parties that Türkiye is both the leading member of the Turkic-speaking community and a model for other members to imitate.

As important as they are, the recent triumph of Azerbaijan and cultural influence of in Central Asia pale in comparison to the diplomatic success enjoyed by the government of Türkiye during the present war in Ukraine. Whether the task at hand was the facilitation of prisoner exchanges or the facilitation of food shipments through the Black Sea, both Russia and Ukraine have often found it easier to work through Türkiye than to try to deal directly with each other.

For more on the strategic importance of Türkiye, please see the article on the Istanbul Canal recently posted on the Substack of Robert Malone.